The REAL Poll News in Iowa

A recent diaryon the just-released Insider Advantage poll in Iowa points to Edwards' gains and Obama's decline:

Clinton 30%
Edwards 29%
Obama 22%

But the REAL news is in the second question.
The responses to the second question point to the possibility of a significant Edwards victory in Iowa.

2. If you are planning to vote for a candidate other than Clinton, Edwards, or Obama, and your candidate fails to receive the required 15% of the overall caucus vote in the first round of voting, and if the remaining choices were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, which candidate would you vote for as your second choice? (among those who were either undecided or planned to vote for another candidate)

Edwards 62%
Clinton 21%
Obama 17%

With nearly 20% of the respondants supporting another candidate of undecided that creates the following allocation:

Edwards +12%
Clinton +4%
Obama +4%

For a total of:

Edwards 41%
Clinton 34%
Obama 25%

The Insider Advantage poll was a thorough poll with nearly 800 likely Dem caucus goers - nearly twice the size of many polls.  It doesn't skip younger voters, but represents them in numbers comparable to turnout in 2004.  Among first choices, Clinton's percentages increase with age group, Obama's decrease significantly.  Edwards does well in all groups except the 18 to 29 group.  But among second choices, Edwards tops 60% in all age groups.

More and more indicators are pointing to an Edwards win in Iowa -
And not just any win.

Happy New Year!