Tonight’s loss by Hillary Clinton is not just the loss of the presidency, tonight’s loss has the potential to be a historically realigning election. Donald Trump is going to cruise to a comfortable victory - both in the popular vote and in the electoral college. The polls got it wrong. The pundits got it wrong. Trump got it right. He has gotten it right all along.
The disbelief among progressives here in the United States is not unlike the disbelief of David Cameron and other supporters of the European Union when the U.K. voted for Brexit. The polls and pundits got it wrong there, too. A similar upwelling of right-wing populism is evident in France with Marine Le Pen, in Germany with Frauke Petry, in the Netherlands with Geert Wilders, in Sweden, in Denmark, in Finland, in Austria, in Hungary. And the well-heeled have gotten it wrong every time.
But tonight’s loss is not only the presidency. The Republican Party will have a lock on the federal government - controlling the Senate and the House. The Democrats will only pick up a couple of Senate seats and are looking a big losses in 2018 when they have to defend 25 seats to the GOP’s 8. And it now appears that the Republicans may actually pick up a few House seats tonight. That means that the open Supreme Court seat is going to go to a conservative justice - a very conservative justice. Ginsburg and Kennedy will likely be replaced by conservative justices, so the Supreme Court will be locked into a right-wing frame for a generation.
And within the Republican Party? You won’t even hear the name “Bush” mentioned. Paul Ryan may resign as Speaker before the end of the year. He will certainly have no chance of retaining his position come January. Scores are going to be settled and those looking out for their own skins will toss the NeverTrumpsters to the wolves. What was it that Churchill said about crocodiles? “Each one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last.”
Well, there will be Republicans waiting in line to throw other Republicans into the moat.
And don’t stop there. Two-thirds of the states are controlled by Republicans. 31 governors are Republican. These folks will be controlling redistricting after the next census unless something major occurs in 2018 or 2020. And the GOP will have a lock on the federal government at least until 2020.
I’ve got bad news for you. Climate change is not the most important issue. I have been in a decade-long debate with Meteor Blades about red coming before green. In this case “red” refers to core economic issues and “green” to environmental issues. A woman needing to cook for her family will cut the last tree down on the hillside - because her family needs to eat tonight. Tonight. And isn’t that what we are talking about. Tonight?
Climate change reform will not get to first base under a Trump administration. And part of the loss tonight is due to the loss of resource workers who were once core constituents of the Democratic Party but have been made into pariahs of late. West Virginia used to be one of the most reliable Democratic states. Tonight it went for Trump by 42%.
And yes, racism and misogyny are rampant in America. The Bundys get exonerated in Oregon after the armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge while Native American defenders of their lands and waters are maced and attacked by dogs. I am old enough to remember Birmingham. I am outraged. But I am also flabbergasted that the recent iteration of the Democratic Party seems so ill-adept in creating coalitions with anyone other than those who are card-carrying progressives in all departments.
Incomes for working people have stalled out for the past 40 years. I am convinced that had the Democratic Party pursued a policy of income growth first, then a broad coalition of Democrats would have been more than willing to adopt policies - more expensive policies - that protected the environment. And they would have welcomed more people of color and women to the table. But when the pie is shrinking, it plays right into the hands of the right wing.
It’s not going to be pretty.
And it’s going to take a long time.