If you think Donald Trump is bad, just cross the Atlantic Pond and look at what is taking place in Europe. Right-wing populism is surging across the continent. In three state elections in Germany, the Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) scored huge gains. Much of these gains is spurred on by hostility to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s generous refugee policy. And AfD’s leader, Frauke Petry, sounds very much like Trump when she suggests how to deal with the hundreds of thousands of refugees, “Just shoot ‘em.”
Three years ago, the AfD did not exist. It barely missed out gaining the minimum 5% threshold in the German federal elections of 2013. Today, it polls nationally at 11%. Merkel described the party as a temporary aberration. Today’s state election results buried that attitude.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD received nearly 25% of the vote. 25% !!! It will be the second largest party in the state Landtag. Only 5% below the Christian Democrats and 15% above the Social Democrats. The Left Party dropped almost by half and the Greens barely topped the 5% threshold.
In Baden-Wurttemberg, leftists are proclaiming the 30% showing of the Green Party, which will lead the state government again; however, they ignore the collapse of the Social Democrats to 13%. The AfD, at 15%, is the third largest party in the state Landtag, well below the Christian Democrats’ 27%, who also suffered big losses.
And in Rhineland-Palatinate, the results are similar, although perhaps not quite so extreme — unless you are a Green Party supporter. The Social Democrats and Christian Democrats only lost a few seats — made up by the gains of the Free Democrats. But the Greens lost 10% — 2/3s of their vote — and barely squeaked in above 5%. Meanwhile, the AfD exceeded all poll projections with 13%.
What this means is that Germany is in for a long political fight with right-wing populism. Even if no party will accept any coalition with the AfD, whether at the federal or state level, the AfD will influence strongly the tenor of political debate. The Free Democrats — centrists with a laissez-faire economic program — have been on life support since 2013. Despite the Baden-Wurttemberg victory, the Greens are struggling nationally and in most states. The conservative Christian Democrats have experienced some losses, but the Social Democrats — the party that for more than 100 years has been a model of progressive policy for the world — is in freefall.
Sobering.